Here we are in the decline of American hegemony. And it's kind of funny and also kind of a bummer. Because, as various clever folks pointed out back in the first OPEC crisis of 1973, is American-style prosperity really possible on the global scale? Our entire global economy is based on oil and natural gas; it underpins the 1000x increase in per capita energy consumption since the start of industrialism around 1800. Despite my tendency to blame everything on Dick Cheney, personally, the real culprit behind the price of gas is simply India (1.1 billion+) and China (1.6 billion +) wanting to get in on the a-turkey-in-every-pot and a-car-in-every-driveway action that Americans have taken for granted for nearly sixty years. And oil and natural gas are indeed, albeit slowly, running out.
For me, this comes back to one of the unanswered questions of the left: is the goal global prosperity, read loads of consumption for everyone, or is it some kind of more sustainable but less comfortable lifestyle, hopefully based on more efficient energy sources (eventually)? Because if we claim we're in favor of option B, we have to face the fact that no society has ever willingly given up prosperity in the consume-and-waste sense; reductions in prosperity have generally accompanied catastrophes like invasion and colonialism, plague, or war.
My point here is really that I'm amazed at how fast history happens. When we use the word "history" we think of Sumeria or the Ming Dynasty or Mughal India or George Washington. But, as everything I've been reading for my QE has really demonstrated to me, so much has changed so fast since about 1970. Hell, so much has changed since 1989! We live in a time in which massive, consequential change happens on an annual basis, and as we're seeing now with the economy, it's change that you feel.*
*Note that global economic shifts having concrete impacts at the local level is nothing new; I'm just interested in the the American self-image of prosperity vs. how fast its material base is changing.
Unrelated Addendum: I just realized why I've been in such a weird mood and why I've done so little work over the last 5 - 6 days: I'm worried shitless about my Italian translation exam this coming Monday. At least I know why I'm completely useless....
3.12.2008
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2 comments:
Technological advancement has expanded the ability to exploit the world's resource base and facilitated population growth to an untenable point. Rapid transportation and communication to economize markets has led to a snowball effect of rapid change. The world will devour itself shortly because people are vile and lazy by nature with an inability to adapt rapidly enough to address fluid problems. Face these truths and despair! Then go have a drink and don't worry about it.
I don't know if it counts as plague or famine, or whatever else you mentioned, but the sub-prime mortgage crisis fallout and increase in gas prices has already done a lot to convince people to pull back on the consumption and spending. A colleague of mine is planning on trading in his small SUV for a small car (like a civic or sephia) and move closer to work because of the cost of gas. Another friend is planning to move to downtown Portland and get rid of her car to save money. Hopefully it happens gradually... :) I'd rather not deal with the alternative...
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